Deals across the industry

The consumer industry in 2025: a year of cautious optimism

2025 was widely predicted to be a year of muted expectations for the consumer industry. While inflation and interest rates eased, paving the way for improved consumer confidence, businesses still faced significant challenges, including rising labour and operating costs, staff shortages and shifting customer priorities.

Unsurprisingly, deal activity in the industry fell, with the first three quarters of the year seeing a 12% decrease in deal volume compared to the same period in 2024 (Pitchbook: Q1–Q3 2025 vs. 2024 – apparel and accessories, consumer durables, consumer non-durables, restaurants, hotels & leisure, and retail). The most notable decrease was in the retail sector (a 39% decrease), while leisure and hospitality deal volumes remained stable.

Now that uncertainty around the Budget is behind us, both consumers and businesses can look ahead with renewed confidence. As we move into 2026, the tone is optimistic, but it remains tentative. Deal activity is expected to continue focusing on consumer businesses that offer a robust, differentiated proposition and a track record of growth, despite recent economic headwinds.

Consumer outlook for 2026

Conditions for deal activity are improving, and the industry is becoming more attractive – particularly as it appears less vulnerable to AI-driven disruption. However, buyer caution is likely to persist. Companies seeking investment will need to demonstrate resilience, growth potential and deal readiness by:

Innovating and adding value. Strategies could involve digital transformation, sustainability initiatives and customer-centric improvements.

Leveraging data effectively. Presenting a well-packaged, data-driven business with KPIs that reinforce key selling messages will be critical. This approach can accelerate due diligence and help close deals faster.